Energy import resilience with input–output linear programming models

a r t i c l e i n f o In this work we develop a new approach to study the energy import resilience of an economy using linear programming and economic input–output analysis. In particular, we propose an energy import resilience index by examining the maximum level of energy import reduction that the economy can endure without sacrificing domestic demands. A mixed integer programming model is then developed to compute the resilience index efficiently. The methodology is applied to a case study using China input–output data to study the energy import resilience under different power generation portfolio assumptions. We demonstrate how our models can be used to uncover important inter-sectoral dependencies, and to guide decision-makers in improving the energy resilience in a systematic manner. The central theme of concern in this work is succinctly described by IEA's definition of national energy security (IEA, 2014), where in particular " short-term energy security focuses on the ability of the energy system to react promptly to sudden changes in the supply–demand balance ". Indeed , unanticipated disruptions in energy supplies (primary fuels, electricity , high energy-embodied goods) can lead to cascading problems in the economy due to the complex interdependency between different industry sectors. For example, the U.S. witnessed a huge decline in economic output during the 1973 oil supply crisis (Akins, 1973). In 2008, a shortage of hydroelectricity supply in Central Asia caused severe damage to the national economy, especially in agriculture sectors, which led to a major food crisis in the same year (Libert et al., 2008). Energy import reliance is often identified as an important determinant of national energy security, as evident from the various published studies on energy security performance indicators It is clear that an economy highly dependent on imports for its primary energies faces greater exposure to risks of exogenous supply shocks. On the other hand, two economies with similar degree of import dependencies may have very different reactions when exposed to the same import supply shocks. This can be due simply to their inherently different inter-sectoral dependency structure. A desirable structure should allow effective mitigation of the energy import loss via redistribution of production resources to restore supply and demand balance. This is coherent with the concept of energy resilience It is of interest in this work to quantify and evaluate such a concept of energy resilience using a model-based approach. In this paper, …